Kashmir in Climate Crossroads: Between Paradise and a Hot Hell
Musaib Bilal
Climate describes the typical weather of an area over many years, usually 30 years or more. It includes temperature, humidity, precipitation, and seasonal patterns, and gives us a sense of what to anticipate in an area. In contrast to the day-to-day changes in weather, climate is long-term and stable. Climate determines our seasons, farming, water cycles, and lifestyle.
As climate starts to alter, it disturbs such long-settled patterns. A couple of degrees of increase in average temperature or change in the pattern of rainfall can give rise to a series of environmental, economic, and social impacts. Climate change can cause increased heatwaves, erratic rainfall, prolonged droughts, and melting ice caps, all of which can destabilize ecosystems, agriculture, and human habitats.
Climate may vary because of natural causes like volcanic activities, fluctuations in solar radiation, and ocean currents. Human activity has overtaken the natural causes in the last few decades. Fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, industrial processes, and industrial-scale agriculture have elevated greenhouse gas concentrations, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). These gases strengthen the greenhouse effect, increasing the amount of heat in the Earth’s atmosphere and hastening global warming.
The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon that warms the Earth to a habitable temperature. The sun’s rays penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere, are absorbed by the surface, and radiate back as heat. Greenhouse gases capture some of this heat in the same way that glass in a greenhouse retains heat. Though necessary in balance, human presence has strengthened this effect, resulting in a warmer Earth and increased global temperatures.
Kashmir has been famous for its moderate and elegantly balanced climate for centuries. The valley was blessed with four clearly defined seasons: winter snows, colorful springs, mild summers, and golden autumns. Winters were marked by snowfall essential for water storage and cultivation, spring brought almond blossoms and greenery to life, summers were temperate relative to mainland India and did not go over 30°C, and autumns, which are referred to as harud locally, marked the harvest season amidst scattered chinar leaves. This regular cycle determined Kashmir’s ecological pattern, tourism seasonality, and farming schedule.
In recent decades, Kashmir has seen disturbing shifts in climate. Temperatures have increased on average by around 1.45°C during the last century, with the majority of warming taking place in recent decades. Winters are shorter, snowfall has decreased
, and summers have intensified and become drier. Glaciers are melting at a rate that is nothing short of alarming, with some estimates suggesting as much as 0.5 meters annually. Spring comes earlier than usual, and rainfall is becoming spasmodic, leading to flash floods one day and weeks of unending dryness the next. The apple belt of the region is creeping up in altitude, while traditional crops such as saffron are being plagued by unpredictable weather.
The increase in temperature in Kashmir is closely associated with the strengthening of the greenhouse effect. As greenhouse gases build up in the atmosphere as a result of regional and global emissions, they retain more heat, disrupting the natural climate pattern of the valley. This has resulted in glacier retreat, changing snowfall patterns, and enhanced evaporation from water reservoirs. The warming is also shifting the timing and intensity of seasons, exposing the region to floods, droughts, and crop failure.
Though modernisation and globalisation have initiated development and connectivity to Kashmir, they have also played an important role in environmental degradation. Deforestation, rapid urbanisation, widening of roads, and uncontrolled building have decreased green cover and interrupted ecosystems. The usage of fossil fuels in transportation and energy, along with rising plastic waste and pollution, has added to the ecological imbalance of the region. Wetlands and lakes are encroached, and agricultural land is used to create concrete buildings, cutting down forests and the ability of land to hold water and regulate temperature.
Consequences of increasing temperature in Kashmir are many and interconnected. Glaciers, which replenish the rivers of the region, are melting, posing a risk to water availability in the long run. Lakes such as Dal and Wular are decreasing in size because of evaporation and encroachment. The decline in snowfall averts ancient water systems and farming, especially for temperature-dependent crops such as saffron and apples. Increased temperature also enhances the likelihood of forest fires and the outbreak of diseases such as dengue, which were previously a rarity in Kashmir’s chilly climate. Not only do these changes impact the environment but also have profound economic and social implications.
Kashmir’s natural climate has been a tourist hotpot, drawing people for snow in winter, tulip flowers in spring, and summer cool-offs. Tourism is an important sector of the economy, providing livelihood for thousands of people—from the owners of shikaras to hotel owners. Climate change, however, threatens this industry. Lower snowfall affects winter tourism and skiing activities in areas such as Gulmarg. Warmer summers and erratic weather deter travel. Flash floods and landslides are safety hazards. When tourist trends change, the local economy becomes insecure.
The idea that development requires sacrificing nature and heritage is a weak one. Rome, Prague, and many areas of Germany have proved that cities can be modernized without losing cultural and ecological integrity. Kashmir can also forge a different path. By putting money into sustainable infrastructure, curbing urban sprawl, encouraging eco-tourism, and conserving traditional architecture, Kashmir can develop responsibly. Growth here should be gentle, not violent; based on long-term strength, not short-term greed. The valley shouldn’t try to imitate concrete metropolises—it can pioneer as an example of friendly growth.
Kashmir is at a climate crossroads. It can either permit unregulated growth and increased temperatures to wipe its natural and cultural identity, or take action now to safeguard its heritage for the future. Global warming is not some future danger—it is already changing life in the valley day by day. The way forward needs consciousness, policy reform, community engagement, and a commitment to green development. With the proper vision, Kashmir can remain the paradise that it has forever remained—not merely in poetry or memory, but in reality.
The writer is an author, speaker and a Mental Health advocate currently pursuing bachelor’s in chemistry at Amar Singh College. Can be contacted at musaibilal.216061@gmail.com